Rankings
Switch scoring views without changing the underlying cards.
| Rank | Citizen impact | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 2 | 98 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 3 | 98 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 4 | 97 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 5 | 97 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 6 | 97 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 7 | 96 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 8 | 95 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 9 | 95 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 10 | 94 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 11 | 93 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 12 | 92 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 13 | 92 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 14 | 92 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 15 | 91 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 16 | 90 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 17 | 88 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 18 | 88 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 19 | 87 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 20 | 87 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 21 | 87 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 22 | 86 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 23 | 86 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 24 | 85 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 25 | 84 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 26 | 82 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 27 | 81 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 28 | 81 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 29 | 81 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 30 | 81 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 31 | 80 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 32 | 80 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 33 | 78 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 34 | 77 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 35 | 77 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 36 | 76 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 37 | 75 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 38 | 75 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 39 | 74 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 40 | 73 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 41 | 73 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 42 | 71 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 43 | 71 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 44 | 69 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 45 | 69 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 46 | 67 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 47 | 67 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 48 | 66 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 49 | 66 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 50 | 65 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 51 | 64 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 52 | 63 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 53 | 62 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 54 | 60 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 55 | 60 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 56 | 59 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 57 | 58 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 58 | 56 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 59 | 55 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 60 | 54 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 61 | 53 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 62 | 50 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 63 | 47 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 64 | 32 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 65 | 31 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive | |
| 66 | 29 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth |
| Rank | Confidence-adjusted long-term | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 2 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 3 | 99 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 4 | 99 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 5 | 98 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 6 | 98 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 7 | 98 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 8 | 96 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 9 | 96 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 10 | 96 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 11 | 96 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 12 | 94 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 13 | 94 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 14 | 93 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 15 | 91 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 16 | 90 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 17 | 90 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 18 | 89 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 19 | 88 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 20 | 88 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 21 | 88 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 22 | 88 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 23 | 88 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 24 | 86 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 25 | 86 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 26 | 84 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 27 | 83 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 28 | 82 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 29 | 82 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 30 | 82 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 31 | 82 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 32 | 82 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 33 | 82 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 34 | 82 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 35 | 80 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 36 | 79 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 37 | 78 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 38 | 76 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 39 | 74 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 40 | 74 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 41 | 74 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 42 | 74 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 43 | 73 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 44 | 72 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 45 | 72 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 46 | 70 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 47 | 69 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 48 | 69 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 49 | 67 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 50 | 65 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 51 | 64 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 52 | 64 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 53 | 62 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 54 | 61 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 55 | 59 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 56 | 58 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 57 | 58 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 58 | 57 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 59 | 51 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 60 | 50 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 61 | 47 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 62 | 46 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 63 | 43 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 64 | 36 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 65 | 35 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth | |
| 66 | 26 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive |
| Rank | Long-term damage | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 2 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 3 | 99 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 4 | 99 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 5 | 98 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 6 | 98 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 7 | 98 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 8 | 96 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 9 | 96 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 10 | 96 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 11 | 96 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 12 | 94 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 13 | 94 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 14 | 93 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 15 | 91 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 16 | 90 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 17 | 90 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 18 | 89 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 19 | 88 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 20 | 88 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 21 | 88 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 22 | 88 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 23 | 88 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 24 | 86 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 25 | 86 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 26 | 86 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 27 | 86 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 28 | 84 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 29 | 84 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 30 | 83 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 31 | 82 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 32 | 82 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 33 | 82 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 34 | 82 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 35 | 82 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 36 | 82 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 37 | 82 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 38 | 80 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 39 | 80 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 40 | 80 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 41 | 79 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 42 | 78 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 43 | 78 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 44 | 76 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 45 | 76 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 46 | 74 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 47 | 74 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 48 | 74 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 49 | 73 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 50 | 72 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 51 | 71 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 52 | 70 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 53 | 69 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 54 | 68 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 55 | 68 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 56 | 66 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 57 | 64 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 58 | 62 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 59 | 59 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 60 | 58 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 61 | 55 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 62 | 53 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 63 | 50 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 64 | 36 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 65 | 35 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth | |
| 66 | 30 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive |
| Rank | Immediate damage | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 2 | 97 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 3 | 96 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 4 | 94 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 5 | 92 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 6 | 92 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 7 | 90 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 8 | 90 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 9 | 89 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 10 | 88 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 11 | 88 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 12 | 88 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 13 | 87 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 14 | 86 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 15 | 86 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 16 | 86 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 17 | 86 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 18 | 85 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 19 | 84 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 20 | 84 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 21 | 82 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 22 | 81 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 23 | 80 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 24 | 78 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 25 | 78 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 26 | 77 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 27 | 76 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 28 | 76 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 29 | 76 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 30 | 76 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 31 | 75 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 32 | 74 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 33 | 74 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 34 | 73 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 35 | 72 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 36 | 72 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 37 | 72 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 38 | 72 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 39 | 71 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 40 | 71 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 41 | 70 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 42 | 70 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 43 | 70 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 44 | 69 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 45 | 67 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 46 | 66 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 47 | 65 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 48 | 64 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 49 | 62 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 50 | 62 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 51 | 61 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 52 | 60 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 53 | 60 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 54 | 59 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 55 | 58 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 56 | 58 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 57 | 55 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 58 | 52 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 59 | 52 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 60 | 49 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 61 | 48 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 62 | 45 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 63 | 42 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 64 | 35 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive | |
| 65 | 30 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 66 | 25 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth |
| Rank | Realized harm | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 2 | 98 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 3 | 97 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 4 | 95 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 5 | 95 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 6 | 95 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 7 | 94 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 8 | 94 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 9 | 93 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 10 | 92 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 11 | 92 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 12 | 90 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 13 | 90 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 14 | 90 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 15 | 88 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 16 | 88 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 17 | 88 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 18 | 87 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 19 | 85 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 20 | 84 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 21 | 84 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 22 | 84 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 23 | 82 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 24 | 82 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 25 | 82 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 26 | 81 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 27 | 80 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 28 | 78 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 29 | 78 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 30 | 78 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 31 | 78 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 32 | 76 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 33 | 76 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 34 | 76 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 35 | 75 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 36 | 73 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 37 | 72 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 38 | 72 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 39 | 72 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 40 | 71 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 41 | 71 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 42 | 70 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 43 | 69 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 44 | 68 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 45 | 67 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 46 | 65 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 47 | 64 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 48 | 64 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 49 | 64 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 50 | 62 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 51 | 62 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 52 | 60 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 53 | 60 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 54 | 60 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 55 | 59 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 56 | 58 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 57 | 58 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 58 | 55 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 59 | 54 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 60 | 52 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 61 | 48 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 62 | 45 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 63 | 42 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 64 | 35 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive | |
| 65 | 30 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 66 | 25 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth |
| Rank | Tail risk | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 2 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 3 | 96 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 4 | 96 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 5 | 96 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 6 | 96 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 7 | 94 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 8 | 94 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 9 | 94 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 10 | 93 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 11 | 92 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 12 | 92 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 13 | 90 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 14 | 90 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 15 | 89 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 16 | 88 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 17 | 88 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 18 | 86 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 19 | 86 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 20 | 86 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 21 | 86 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 22 | 86 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 23 | 86 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 24 | 86 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 25 | 86 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 26 | 84 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 27 | 84 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 28 | 84 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 29 | 84 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 30 | 82 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 31 | 82 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 32 | 82 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 33 | 82 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 34 | 82 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 35 | 82 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 36 | 82 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 37 | 82 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 38 | 80 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 39 | 80 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 40 | 80 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 41 | 78 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 42 | 78 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 43 | 78 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 44 | 78 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 45 | 76 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 46 | 76 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 47 | 74 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 48 | 74 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 49 | 74 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 50 | 73 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 51 | 72 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 52 | 71 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 53 | 70 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 54 | 69 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 55 | 68 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 56 | 66 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 57 | 64 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 58 | 62 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 59 | 59 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 60 | 58 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 61 | 55 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 62 | 53 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 63 | 50 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 64 | 36 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 65 | 35 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth | |
| 66 | 30 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive |
| Rank | Institutional damage | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 2 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 3 | 99 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 4 | 97 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 5 | 96 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 6 | 96 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 7 | 96 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 8 | 94 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 9 | 94 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 10 | 92 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 11 | 92 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 12 | 92 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 13 | 92 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 14 | 92 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 15 | 91 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 16 | 91 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 17 | 91 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 18 | 90 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 19 | 88 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 20 | 88 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 21 | 88 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 22 | 88 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 23 | 88 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 24 | 87 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 25 | 86 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 26 | 86 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 27 | 86 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 28 | 86 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 29 | 86 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 30 | 86 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 31 | 85 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 32 | 84 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 33 | 84 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 34 | 84 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 35 | 83 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 36 | 82 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 37 | 82 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 38 | 82 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 39 | 82 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 40 | 81 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 41 | 81 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 42 | 81 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 43 | 80 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 44 | 79 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 45 | 78 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 46 | 76 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 47 | 76 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 48 | 73 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 49 | 72 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 50 | 72 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 51 | 72 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 52 | 71 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 53 | 70 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 54 | 69 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 55 | 68 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 56 | 67 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 57 | 66 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 58 | 65 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 59 | 61 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 60 | 58 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 61 | 58 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 62 | 55 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 63 | 52 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 64 | 37 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive | |
| 65 | 37 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 66 | 34 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth |
| Rank | Human damage | Item | Side | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Attempt to overturn the 2020 election / Jan. 6 The attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election and the Jan. 6 attack were the clearest democracy-threatening actions in the period. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 2 | 100 | Indian Removal and forced dispossession Federal removal policy and state pressure forced Native nations from homelands and exposed limits in constitutional protection. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 3 | 100 | Prolonged school closures / learning-loss cohort damage Prolonged closures after evidence shifted toward reopening likely created one of the most durable human-capital harms of the 2020+ period. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive institutions, bipartisan early | |
| 4 | 100 | Secession declarations and constitutional rupture Seceding states rejected the 1860 presidential result and left the Union to protect slavery, producing the country's largest constitutional rupture. | Cross-cuttingSeceding slave states / federal union | |
| 5 | 98 | Constitutional slavery compromises The Constitution built durable republican machinery while embedding compromises that protected slavery and distorted representation. | Cross-cuttingConstitutional Convention / ratifying states | |
| 6 | 97 | Plessy and judicial ratification of Jim Crow Plessy v. Ferguson gave constitutional cover to segregation and helped entrench Jim Crow. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / segregationist governments | |
| 7 | 96 | Dred Scott constitutional collapse Dred Scott converted the Supreme Court into an accelerant for the slavery crisis. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / slave-power coalition | |
| 8 | 96 | Executive Order 9066 and Japanese American internment Wartime executive power enabled mass removal and incarceration of Japanese Americans. | Cross-cuttingRoosevelt administration / wartime federal government | |
| 9 | 96 | Fugitive Slave Act and federal compulsion The strengthened Fugitive Slave Act made federal power enforce slavery across state lines and punished resistance by free-state communities. | Cross-cuttingCongress / federal commissioners / slaveholding interests | |
| 10 | 96 | Jan. 6 pardons / commutations Broad Jan. 6 clemency turns an attack on the transfer of power into forgiven movement violence. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 11 | 96 | Reconstruction enforcement collapse Reconstruction amended the Constitution, but federal enforcement narrowed while racial violence and state systems rolled back equal citizenship. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / states / federal retreat | |
| 12 | 95 | Proud Boys / alt-right political-violence network The Proud Boys / alt-right violence network normalizes street intimidation, political violence, and movement defense of authoritarian politics. | Nonstate rightNonstate right | |
| 13 | 94 | Korematsu and judicial ratification of internment The Supreme Court upheld wartime exclusion orders that enabled Japanese American incarceration. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / wartime federal government | |
| 14 | 94 | Vietnam escalation and Tonkin Gulf legitimacy crisis The Tonkin Gulf Resolution enabled escalation in Vietnam and became a symbol of war-powers and trust failure. | Cross-cuttingJohnson administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 15 | 94 | Wilmington 1898 coup and local democratic overthrow The Wilmington coup used racial terror and organized force to overthrow a lawful multiracial local government. | Cross-cuttingNorth Carolina white supremacist Democrats / local press and militias | |
| 16 | 92 | Mass incarceration and public-safety state expansion The U.S. prison population rose to historically high levels, creating long-run civil-rights, family, fiscal, and public-trust damage. | Cross-cuttingFederal and state governments | |
| 17 | 91 | Antifa / anarchist-left / black-bloc violence network Decentralized anarchist-left / black-bloc violence has contributed to public-order collapse, intimidation, property destruction, and distrust in left-aligned protest movements. | Nonstate leftNonstate left | |
| 18 | 90 | Iraq War authorization and legitimacy damage The Iraq War authorization produced severe human, fiscal, and institutional trust costs after the case for war failed. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 19 | 90 | Kansas-Nebraska Act and Bleeding Kansas escalation The Kansas-Nebraska Act reopened slavery expansion by popular sovereignty and helped turn territorial politics into violence. | Cross-cuttingCongress / territorial factions / proslavery and antislavery militias | |
| 20 | 88 | Missouri Compromise and sectional slavery bargain The Missouri Compromise preserved sectional balance by admitting Missouri as a slave state, Maine as a free state, and drawing a territorial slavery line. | Cross-cuttingCongress / slave-state and free-state coalitions | |
| 21 | 86 | COVID emergency overreach beyond schools Emergency powers lasted too long or were applied inconsistently, damaging civil liberties and trust. | DemocraticMostly Democratic states/cities, bipartisan early | |
| 22 | 86 | Financial crisis, foreclosure, and trust shock The financial crisis inflicted mass household damage and weakened trust in markets, regulators, and elite accountability. | Cross-cuttingFinancial sector / regulators / elected officials | |
| 23 | 86 | Riot/looting/burning minimization and under-enforcement Most 2020 protests were peaceful, but destructive violence was serious enough that elite minimization badly damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive officials/media/activists | |
| 24 | 85 | Crime-spike denial / public-safety unseriousness The 2020 murder and violent-crime spike was real, and elite minimization damaged trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-heavy cities, not exclusively | |
| 25 | 85 | Defund / delegitimize-policing politics Defund rhetoric and selective local cuts damaged policing legitimacy, recruitment, morale, and public safety trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 26 | 84 | Chinese Exclusion and racial immigration law The Chinese Exclusion Act made racial exclusion a federal immigration policy and denied equal civic belonging to a targeted group. | Cross-cuttingCongress / executive enforcement | |
| 27 | 84 | Pro-Hamas / antisemitic anti-Israel activism The subset of anti-Israel activism that praises Hamas, harasses Jews, vandalizes, or launders antisemitism into politics damages civil society and Jewish safety. | Nonstate leftNonstate left / cross-cutting | |
| 28 | 83 | Elite truth management around COVID, crime, and riots Elite institutions often managed public narratives rather than plainly updating on evidence, damaging trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive-aligned institutions, media/platforms; cross-cutting | |
| 29 | 82 | Immigration Act of 1924 and national-origins quotas The Immigration Act of 1924 built national-origin quotas into federal law and expanded Asian exclusion. | Cross-cuttingCongress / Coolidge administration | |
| 30 | 82 | Retaliatory use of state power against enemies Using government power to punish perceived enemies is a central democratic-backsliding risk. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 31 | 81 | Federal pressure into state election administration Federal attempts to access voter rolls, voting equipment, and state election processes create a major tail risk for election administration. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 32 | 77 | Overbroad bail / prosecutor reforms Some bail/prosecutor reforms underweighted repeat-offender and victim/public-safety concerns, though evidence is mixed. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 33 | 74 | Shelby County and Voting Rights Act preclearance collapse Shelby County disabled the Voting Rights Act coverage formula and ended routine preclearance for covered jurisdictions. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / covered jurisdictions / Congress | |
| 34 | 73 | Domestic military / National Guard use in political-city conflicts Domestic military or Guard deployments over state/local objections risk normalizing federal force in political disputes. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 35 | 73 | Donor-driven progressive prosecutor movement National donor money helped reshape low-salience local DA races, raising accountability concerns. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive donor network | |
| 36 | 72 | McCarthyism and loyalty-security blacklists Cold War loyalty programs and McCarthy-era investigations punished suspected ideology and chilled speech, work, and association. | Cross-cuttingFederal executive / Congress / private institutions | |
| 37 | 71 | Partisan redistricting arms race The redistricting arms race corrupts representation by letting politicians choose voters. | BothBoth | |
| 38 | 70 | Civil War habeas stress and military tribunals Civil War emergency government strained habeas corpus, military jurisdiction, and civil-liberty boundaries while the Union fought secession. | Cross-cuttingLincoln administration / military courts / Supreme Court | |
| 39 | 70 | World War I Espionage and Sedition Act speech repression World War I security law criminalized anti-war and anti-government speech and produced Supreme Court approval of wartime prosecutions. | Cross-cuttingWilson administration / Congress / Supreme Court | |
| 40 | 68 | Church Committee intelligence-abuse record The Church Committee exposed domestic spying and covert abuses that crossed administrations. | Cross-cuttingIntelligence agencies / presidents across parties | |
| 41 | 66 | Mass firing of inspectors general / watchdog weakening Mass firing of inspectors general weakens anticorruption and accountability systems. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 42 | 62 | Mamdani-style rent-freeze / price-control governance Mamdani-style rent freezes and price-control governance may provide short-term relief while worsening long-term housing supply, maintenance, and fiscal trust. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 43 | 62 | Patriot Act and post-9/11 surveillance expansion Post-9/11 security law expanded surveillance and investigative powers under emergency pressure. | Cross-cuttingBush administration / bipartisan Congress | |
| 44 | 62 | Proclamation Line of 1763 and frontier legitimacy The 1763 proclamation tried to restrain westward settlement while exposing conflicts over land, empire, and Native sovereignty. | Cross-cuttingBritish Crown / colonial settlers / Native nations | |
| 45 | 62 | Trump family business / crypto monetization Monetizing political power through family business and crypto ventures creates severe conflict-of-interest and corruption perceptions. | RepublicanTrump/family | |
| 46 | 61 | DSA/Mamdani-style insurgent capture of urban Democratic politics DSA/Mamdani-style politics may reshape deep-blue city machines, pushing Democrats toward urban-left governance models. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 47 | 60 | South Carolina nullification crisis South Carolina asserted a state power to nullify federal tariff law, forcing a confrontation over union, sovereignty, and enforcement. | Cross-cuttingSouth Carolina nullifiers / Jackson administration / Congress | |
| 48 | 58 | Watergate presidential abuse and cover-up Watergate exposed campaign espionage, executive obstruction, and a presidential cover-up that ended in resignation. | Cross-cuttingNixon administration / campaign operatives / federal investigators | |
| 49 | 57 | Birthright-citizenship executive order Attempting to change birthright citizenship by executive order is a major constitutional boundary test. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 50 | 56 | State attempts to regulate federal immigration agents Mask/ID laws targeting federal agents raise real civil-liberties concerns but may cross into unconstitutional regulation of federal operations. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive states | |
| 51 | 55 | Emergency-tariff power grab Using emergency powers for sweeping tariffs tests Congress's constitutional trade and tax role. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 52 | 51 | Maximal sanctuary / immigration noncooperation Local noncooperation can be lawful federalism, but maximal forms risk normalizing nullification-style governance. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive cities/states | |
| 53 | 50 | Shays' Rebellion and debt-confederation crisis Shays' Rebellion exposed debt distress, weak national capacity, and elite fear that the confederation could not preserve order. | Cross-cuttingMassachusetts debtors / state authorities / confederation elites | |
| 54 | 48 | Alien and Sedition Acts speech crackdown Early federal speech prosecutions tested whether party power could criminalize opposition press and dissent. | Cross-cuttingFederalists / Adams administration | |
| 55 | 48 | Coercive Acts and collective punishment The Coercive Acts punished Massachusetts and helped convert colonial protest into continental resistance. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / Massachusetts | |
| 56 | 48 | Democratic AG lawsuit blitz A lawsuit blitz is often legitimate constitutional checking but may train both parties to govern through injunctions. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive | |
| 57 | 48 | Enemy within / dehumanizing opposition rhetoric Enemy-within rhetoric turns democratic opponents into existential threats and prepares the ground for retaliation. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 58 | 46 | Citizens United and campaign-finance escalation Citizens United changed federal campaign-finance rules and accelerated outside-spending arms races. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / campaign-finance system | |
| 59 | 45 | High-volume executive-order governance Executive orders are normal, but high-volume unilateral governance can normalize ruling around Congress. | RepublicanTrump/GOP/right | |
| 60 | 44 | Articles of Confederation fiscal and governance failure The first national frame kept state sovereignty high but left the center too weak to manage finance, commerce, and public order. | Cross-cuttingContinental Congress / states | |
| 61 | 42 | Bush v. Gore and emergency election adjudication Bush v. Gore ended the Florida recount and made the Supreme Court the decisive institution in a contested presidential election. | Cross-cuttingSupreme Court / Florida election system / presidential campaigns | |
| 62 | 42 | Fascism / king / coup rhetorical inflation Overusing maximalist authoritarian labels damages the warning system. | DemocraticDemocratic/progressive rhetoric | |
| 63 | 38 | Stamp Act taxation and representation crisis The Stamp Act turned tax enforcement into a legitimacy crisis over representation, courts, commerce, and consent. | Cross-cuttingBritish Parliament / colonial resistance | |
| 64 | 27 | Resistance theater: boycotts, walkouts, and symbolic civic refusal Symbolic boycotts, walkouts, and civic refusal worsen polarization but are usually low-severity. | DemocraticMostly Democratic/progressive | |
| 65 | 27 | Trump felony conviction as institutional-trust damage A convicted president damages trust, but the conviction itself is not an abuse of presidential power. | RepublicanTrump / legal-political system | |
| 66 | 24 | Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals Ordinary lawsuits, protests, and policy reversals are often noisy but normal democratic contestation. | BothBoth |
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